AI token spending growth has stalled. According to TechCrunch reporting on Ramp's latest data, spending jumped just 1.5% in August and September compared to 42% in July. The AI hypergrowth story that powered startup valuations is hitting a wall, and Anthropic's IPO timing is exposed.
Price wars are the immediate cause. OpenAI cut GPT-6 Sol and GPT-6 Luna prices in half in September. Anthropic responded with major reductions to Fable 5.1 and Opus 5.5. Cheaper products benefit consumers but harm Wall Street valuations. Revenue cannot grow when per-unit margins shrink.
The timing is brutal for Anthropic. The company's IPO is looming, and investors expect AI companies to generate sustained profits. Ramp's lead economist Ara Kharazian told TechCrunch that "the era of hypergrowth may be over."
Demand for AI itself remains strong. Token volumes are climbing. But the market is stratified. The top 1% of venture-backed tech firms, major AI spenders, have cut spending. They now spend just under $10,000 per employee monthly, down from summer peaks. Median firms spend $12-15 per employee per month. The top 10% max out around $600-1,000.
Not every business needs to spend like a Silicon Valley unicorn. "It's not necessarily true that a doctor's office or a car dealership will need to spend that much on AI," Kharazian said. This ceiling matters. The addressable market for major AI spending may be far smaller than claimed.
October showed a small rebound with 8.9% growth, but Kharazian remains skeptical. When top spenders, the companies driving AI revenue projections, cut back, everyone feels it. This is margin destruction. For Anthropic heading into an IPO where investors expect explosive growth, it creates a significant headwind.
