Mark Zuckerberg is entering the prediction market industry, and he's bringing Meta along.
According to TechCrunch, citing reporting from the New York Times, Meta has greenlit development of a Polymarket-style smartphone app internally codenamed "Arena."
Arena will operate independently from Meta's core social platforms, but insiders reveal that Instagram, Facebook, and WhatsApp could all direct users to the app.
The experimental concept uses points instead of money. Users will earn points for correctly predicting outcomes on various topics. Sources say money could be added later, but the current version focuses on proving the concept works.
Zuckerberg's timing aligns with rapid growth in prediction markets. Platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi have accumulated tens of billions in trading volume as of April. Even X joined the trend, partnering with Polymarket last summer.
Prediction markets face legal challenges. States are suing operators over alleged gambling law violations. Former U.S. Representative George Santos is under investigation for suspicious trades, and a former special forces soldier faced accusations of using insider knowledge for profit. The current administration supports prediction markets and has sued states that tried to restrict them.
Whether Arena succeeds in this legal landscape remains unclear. But Zuckerberg's investment signals Meta's confidence in the category.
