Rohit Agarwal writes on markets from the perspective of the individual investor — the person trying to make sense of Sensex movements, IPO pricing, and mutual fund returns without a Bloomberg terminal. His approach is Peter Lynch's: look at the companies you already understand, do the homework the analysts skip, and never invest in something you can't explain to a neighbour.
Recent work
Monisha Chakraborty at RBI's Helm: What a Career Regulator Brings to Forex and Markets
The RBI has appointed Monisha Chakraborty as Executive Director effective August 3, 2026, placing a career central banker with supervisory, foreign exchange, and ombudsman experience in charge of the Foreign Exchange Department and Financial Markets Regulation Department. The appointment carries institutional significance beyond a routine personnel change — her supervisory background arrives at a moment when the central bank is tightening its approach to currency derivatives and cross-border capital flows. For retail investors watching rupee movements and debt market access, the regulatory posture of these two departments shapes the ground beneath their portfolios.
Matcha at ₹450 a Cup: How a Japanese Harvest Squeeze Reshapes Indian Café Margins
Indian café chains from Starbucks to homegrown brands like Boba Bhai and abcoffee are driving growth through premium beverages — matcha lattes, bubble teas, Vietnamese coffees — even as global wholesale prices for these imported ingredients surge 30–75% in a year. Most chains are absorbing the cost rather than raising menu prices, but the squeeze reveals a structural gap: India's premium F&B sector depends heavily on Japanese and East Asian agri-commodity supply chains it cannot control. The crisis also quietly signals an opening for India's own tea estates.
ECB Holds Rates as Middle East Energy Shock Reshapes European Monetary Calculus
The European Central Bank held all three key interest rates unchanged on July 23, 2026, citing an energy shock from the Middle East conflict whose inflationary ripples have yet to fully materialise. ECB President Christine Lagarde signalled a data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach with no pre-commitment to any rate path. For Indian equity markets, IT exporters, and the RBI's own policy deliberations, the decision is anything but distant noise.
SGB 2019-20 Series-VIII Premature Redemption: What ₹14,170 Tells Retail Investors
The Reserve Bank of India has fixed the premature redemption price for Sovereign Gold Bond 2019-20 Series-VIII at ₹14,170 per unit, due on July 21, 2026. Based on IBJA's three-day average for 999-purity gold, the price represents a dramatic appreciation from the January 2020 issue. For retail investors who subscribed at inception, the absolute return runs close to 197% — before accounting for the 2.5% annual coupon paid along the way.
SGB 2020-21 Series-IX Pays Out at ₹14,366 — What Bondholders Must Decide Now
The Reserve Bank of India has announced a premature redemption price of ₹14,366 per unit for Sovereign Gold Bond 2020-21 Series-IX, due on July 4, 2026. Investors who subscribed in January 2021 have seen capital appreciation exceeding 180% in five years, in addition to semi-annual interest payments. The announcement reopens a broader question: as gold prices near historic highs, what does the SGB scheme's fiscal architecture mean for both bondholders and the Government of India?
An Indian at the ICC's Helm Shifts the Global Digital Trade Conversation
Harsh Pati Singhania, the newly elected chairman of the International Chamber of Commerce, has made digital trade standards and AI governance the twin pillars of his two-year tenure. His elevation — only the fourth Indian to lead the ICC in its 107-year history — arrives at a moment when competing regulatory templates from Brussels, Washington, and Beijing are racing to become de-facto global norms. India now holds a seat at the table where those norms are written, not merely adopted.
FMCG Sector Shifts From Volume Strategy as War-Driven Costs Squeeze Margins
India's FMCG sector is pivoting from volume-led growth to margin protection as West Asia war-induced inflation drives up crude oil-linked input costs. Major companies are implementing price hikes and shrinkflation strategies as volume growth is expected to halve in FY27.
RBI Absorbs ₹2.37 Lakh Crore as Banking System Drowns in Excess Liquidity
RBI's latest money market operations show the central bank absorbed ₹2.37 lakh crore in excess liquidity on May 12, while overnight rates held steady at 5.13%. The massive surplus indicates strong banking system liquidity but raises questions about productive deployment of funds and potential inflationary pressures.
Indian Automakers Absorb Commodity Inflation to Protect GST Price-Cut Gains
Major Indian automakers are absorbing significant commodity inflation rather than passing costs to consumers, protecting demand gains from last year's GST rate cuts. Companies report 30-50% commodity price increases while making only modest 1-3% vehicle price hikes.
Treasury Bill Yields Hit 5.7% as India's Debt Market Shows Resilience
The RBI's latest treasury bill auction saw yields ranging from 5.29% to 5.69% with robust demand exceeding notified amounts. The successful ₹22.8 crore auction demonstrates healthy domestic liquidity and investor confidence in India's sovereign debt instruments.
Gen Z Skips Corporate Ladder for Startups as AI Reshapes Entry-Level Jobs
As artificial intelligence displaces entry-level positions and hiring slumps globally, Generation Z workers are bypassing traditional employment to create their own companies. This entrepreneurial pivot reflects broader economic pressures that particularly affect young workers entering the job market.